Comments on: In Buying the Fridge, Maryland Living Beyond its Means http://shell-games.com/2009/11/to-buy-out-the-fridge-financing-is-tough/ Just two rabid Terps fans, speaking their piece. Wed, 17 Mar 2010 00:07:10 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Ralph Friedgen Fights For His Job: An Inside Look at the Negotiations http://shell-games.com/2009/11/to-buy-out-the-fridge-financing-is-tough/comment-page-1/#comment-878 Ralph Friedgen Fights For His Job: An Inside Look at the Negotiations Tue, 01 Dec 2009 21:12:41 +0000 http://shell-games.com/?p=3750#comment-878 [...] The university’s not gonna cough it up.  And the boosters say they cannot collect that [...] [...] The university’s not gonna cough it up.  And the boosters say they cannot collect that [...]

]]> By: Scott http://shell-games.com/2009/11/to-buy-out-the-fridge-financing-is-tough/comment-page-1/#comment-846 Scott Tue, 24 Nov 2009 21:43:23 +0000 http://shell-games.com/?p=3750#comment-846 Update #2: The <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/terps/bal-sp.terpsfoot24nov24,0,5437494.story" rel="nofollow">university board is now basically ruling out</a> the buyout. Rightfully so, and good for them. So the only real buyout option is buying him out with funds from rich boosters and donors. That would be weird and illogical, and I just don't see it happening. I think Ralph is here til the end of his contract or the recession, whichever comes first. Update #2: The university board is now basically ruling out the buyout. Rightfully so, and good for them. So the only real buyout option is buying him out with funds from rich boosters and donors. That would be weird and illogical, and I just don’t see it happening. I think Ralph is here til the end of his contract or the recession, whichever comes first.

]]> By: Scott http://shell-games.com/2009/11/to-buy-out-the-fridge-financing-is-tough/comment-page-1/#comment-835 Scott Mon, 23 Nov 2009 20:52:33 +0000 http://shell-games.com/?p=3750#comment-835 Update: Now I'm reading that a few of the big boosters might be passing the hat to get enough for a Fridge buyout. You'd think he was Tom Cable or something. Update: Now I’m reading that a few of the big boosters might be passing the hat to get enough for a Fridge buyout. You’d think he was Tom Cable or something.

]]> By: terphed http://shell-games.com/2009/11/to-buy-out-the-fridge-financing-is-tough/comment-page-1/#comment-834 terphed Mon, 23 Nov 2009 20:25:12 +0000 http://shell-games.com/?p=3750#comment-834 Dave, I completely agree. It would be interesting to find out how they forecast their football revenues. Did that $600K shortfall come from a forecast that took the recession into account? If I didn't have a day job I'd do some more digging on that. I think it's safe to say that a 3000 ticket per game shortfall could represent a margin of error in the forecast. Maybe the recession affected ticket sales more than they originally anticipated. It certainly affected sales of their new luxury suites more than they anticipated. Dave, I completely agree. It would be interesting to find out how they forecast their football revenues. Did that $600K shortfall come from a forecast that took the recession into account? If I didn’t have a day job I’d do some more digging on that. I think it’s safe to say that a 3000 ticket per game shortfall could represent a margin of error in the forecast. Maybe the recession affected ticket sales more than they originally anticipated. It certainly affected sales of their new luxury suites more than they anticipated.

]]> By: Dave http://shell-games.com/2009/11/to-buy-out-the-fridge-financing-is-tough/comment-page-1/#comment-833 Dave Mon, 23 Nov 2009 18:52:30 +0000 http://shell-games.com/?p=3750#comment-833 Good article and good comment from terphed. One thing as well that Terphed didn't look into was how much of that drop in season ticket sales was the result of the team being bad verses the economy. I'd say the economy has a lot more to do with it. I didn't renew my tickets because I'm getting married soon and really couldn't justify it, not because the team was doing or expected to be bad. It will be interesting to see how sales do next year if Fridge is still here... Good article and good comment from terphed. One thing as well that Terphed didn’t look into was how much of that drop in season ticket sales was the result of the team being bad verses the economy. I’d say the economy has a lot more to do with it. I didn’t renew my tickets because I’m getting married soon and really couldn’t justify it, not because the team was doing or expected to be bad. It will be interesting to see how sales do next year if Fridge is still here…

]]> By: terphed http://shell-games.com/2009/11/to-buy-out-the-fridge-financing-is-tough/comment-page-1/#comment-832 terphed Mon, 23 Nov 2009 18:09:38 +0000 http://shell-games.com/?p=3750#comment-832 I love the Fridge. He's my man. If it were up to me, I'd say let him play out his two years and retire. However, this season has been terrible, and the alumni and boosters seem to have run out of patience. From a financial perspective, if we look at Friedgen's contract as a sunk cost, the question becomes whether the buyout will attract more profit over the next two years than it costs to pay a new head coach. I don't see how that is possible. A $600,000 shortfall in ticket sales is virtually nil considering the recession and the fact that it represents only 3,000 tickets per game. You'd have to justify the value of the new coach's salary in an uptick in football profit (not revenue) over the next two years based on the idea that fans are going to start buying more tickets and jerseys because of a favorable outlook on the team's future performance. The only way a new coach would make that big of a bottom line impact is if you get a marquee head coach to come into town. If Maryland announced tomorrow that they bought out Ralph Friedgen and are replacing him with Jon Gruden, then I could see a buyout paying off financially. Short of that, I sincerely doubt Byrd Stadium will start selling out until unemployment turns around. I'm sure the pressure is mounting on the athletic department because of their poor decision to perform a major stadium upgrade right in time for the Great Recession to hit. The timing of this terrible season seems to coincide with many poor decisions regarding the direction of the football program. I'd like to see Ralph stay and see if can turn it around with a healthy and more experienced team next year, but I believe that politics will trump reason in this case. Somebody has to hang for this. I guaruantee you it won't be Debbie Yow. I love the Fridge. He’s my man. If it were up to me, I’d say let him play out his two years and retire. However, this season has been terrible, and the alumni and boosters seem to have run out of patience.

From a financial perspective, if we look at Friedgen’s contract as a sunk cost, the question becomes whether the buyout will attract more profit over the next two years than it costs to pay a new head coach. I don’t see how that is possible. A $600,000 shortfall in ticket sales is virtually nil considering the recession and the fact that it represents only 3,000 tickets per game. You’d have to justify the value of the new coach’s salary in an uptick in football profit (not revenue) over the next two years based on the idea that fans are going to start buying more tickets and jerseys because of a favorable outlook on the team’s future performance.

The only way a new coach would make that big of a bottom line impact is if you get a marquee head coach to come into town. If Maryland announced tomorrow that they bought out Ralph Friedgen and are replacing him with Jon Gruden, then I could see a buyout paying off financially. Short of that, I sincerely doubt Byrd Stadium will start selling out until unemployment turns around.

I’m sure the pressure is mounting on the athletic department because of their poor decision to perform a major stadium upgrade right in time for the Great Recession to hit. The timing of this terrible season seems to coincide with many poor decisions regarding the direction of the football program. I’d like to see Ralph stay and see if can turn it around with a healthy and more experienced team next year, but I believe that politics will trump reason in this case. Somebody has to hang for this. I guaruantee you it won’t be Debbie Yow.

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