There’s no denying the Terps are playing good ball right now. I don’t deny that. No denying it. Since ACC play began, they’ve won three of four, including over no. 18 Florida State and a dominating win at BC. As you know, Maryland’s only loss in this stretch was a gutsy and gut-wrenching overtime affair at Wake Forest that could have gone either way.
Following last night’s win over the Longwood Windshield Bugs — which set a new record for margin of victory at the Comcast Center — they face N.C. State and Miami before a big Jan. 31 test at Clemson. The Wolfpack, who will likely be 12-7 after facing Duke tonight, just upset FSU themselves and lost a squeaker to no. 24 Clemson (sound familiar?). At 15-4, Miami has a good record and some surprisingly good players (especially freshman Reggie Johnson), but hasn’t played a ranked opponent yet (they did beat Wake, however).
On paper, these games — both at home – are quite winnable, especially with Greivis Vasquez looking like the best player in the ACC (don’t bring that Jon Scheyer gobbledygook in here) and Eric Hayes (second in the ACC in three-point percentage), Landon Milbourne (just pencil him in for a 19 and 10) and Jordan Williams chipping in.
But here’s the inevitable rub. The Terps have a notorious tendency to contract a nasty little affliction known as Throw-Your-Jersey-on-the-Floor syndrome. Symptoms include obsessions with press clipping, loss of reasoning skills during games, and delusions of grandeur based on the premise that, because you have won three of your last four games, you are just a few commas and zeroes short of the Lakers.
Don’t believe me? Let’s take a stroll down Statistics Lane, shall we? It’s right here at the corner of Cold and Reality. Last season, following a seven-game win streak, the Terps infamously threw up on themselves versus Morgan State (another symptom of Jersey-on-the-Floor syndrome). This ignited a self-destructive bacchanalia that included Gary Williams’ worst loss ever. I’m no Jay Bilas, but I don’t believe that’s what you want to see. In 2008, they won seven of nine in ACC play before spitting the bit against Va. Tech (at home) and Miami, which touched off a stumble that ultimately netted them 13 shiny tickets to the NIT. Back in 2005, they beat Duke twice, but lost to 16-16 Clemson three times, 16-14 Virginia Tech once, and 16-13 Miami once. NIT again. The Terps aren’t the only team to play up and down, but it’s pretty safe to say they’ve perfected the art of looking past certain opponents. They’re like the Picassos of underestimation.
Perhaps it won’t happen this time. N.C. State and Miami, while not juggernauts, may be dangerous enough to keep Maryland’s attention. All I know is, they won’t get caught in a trap game if they just watch where they’re going. Wow, that was deep.
I’ll let slide that you wrote that NC State would be 12-7 after losing to Duke. Nobody saw that coming.
I think after last night, nobody on the Terps team is overlooking NC State.
So far this season, I don’t think Maryland has played down to the opposition like they have in past years. The teams they have lost to are all well above them in the RPI (though W&M’s RPI is dropping with every CAA game they play), and they haven’t lost to anyone with a lower RPI yet. Right now, I feel pretty good about this team compared to this point in the season the past few years.
Mike, you are absolutely correct. I meant to go in there and reference that, but just forgot. At least on this version.
But hey, thanks for inadvertently giving me a lead-in for a plug. I’m not writing over at Bleacher Report, where I posted the same column, just improved (including a reference to my Duke jinx, which is what it most undoubtedly was).
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/329508-terps-should-watch-for-complacency-trap
And of course, I meant that I am NOW writing there. Me not right too good.
[...] The similarities have only deepened so far this season. Both teams looked flat early before finding their respective bicycle pumps. The Pack, in particular, lost to Florida on a buzzer-beater from the three-point line — no, the other three-point line. But lately, the two teams — Maryland with a 12-5 record, N.C. State at 13-6 — have gotten hot, with N.C. State again notching the most notable game after Wednesday’s defeat of Duke (which I totally saw coming). [...]
[...] in that span have gone 27-42 in ACC play. The games always seem to be impeccably placed for maximum complacency potential. With Maryland playing as well as they are, that’s the Great Satan in this part of the [...]