Want to catch-up on useless knowledge? I highly recommend the Book of Lists.
I’m a fool for lists. They’re just so organized and easy to read. They convey information in a succinct, direct format. Have you ever read the Book of Lists? I contend that it’s the best bathroom book ever.
There are four lists in particular that interest me this morning: The AP Top 25, the ESPN/USA Today Top 25, the Men’s Basketball RPI, and Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology.
Why should these lists be so interesting? To simplify things, consider that Maryland was basically ten spots out of the February 15th Top 25’s. Last week, they were an 8 seed in Bracketology. The Terps are still an 8 seed on Bracketology, and with four regions in the tournament, the 8 seed in would indicate that the Terps are projected to be ranked somewhere between #29-32 at season’s end, and they’re probably accounting for a loss to Duke next week. That means the national media already felt that the Terps were banging on the door of being ranked now.
A week ago, Maryland was hovering in the mid-40’s in RPI, and now they’re #37. The Terps won three games in a week and they moved up about 10 spots. Combined with the fact that the Terps were #35 in the AP Top 25 last week, could they have leapfrogged ten teams to make the #25 spot when the rankings come out this afternoon? It’s very possible. If they don’t, they’re surely be very close.
I’d take our chances in the bracket where we currently are placed. At least the bottom half anyway. An opening game against a Pac-10 team is a gift. The second round game would be tough against K-State but if the Terps got by the Wildcats, I like their chances against the rest of the region. Tennessee is an underachieving, over-rated SEC team that never meets tournament expectations, Marquette is a Big East team I would want to play, Ohio State has a loss against UNC, and Oakland I will not even pretend to be an expert on. I like to check the polls, too, and I hope we crack the Top 25. My feeling is that we play better when we don’t have the respect of the field so if we continue to linger outside the Top 25, I am ok with that. Tucker’s shot was huge in giving the Terps the swagger they need to make a nice post-season run.
Lunardi’s predictions are clearly pure speculation, but it’s interesting that he has us against Cal in a first-round rematch from last year…only with the seeds reversed (us seventh, them tenth). I’ll take that any day of the week and twice on Saturday.
UPDATE: Maryland didn’t make either poll…
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/rankings?poll=2&year=2010&week=13
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/ncaa/men/polls/
Looking into Kansas St. a little more, I would like the Terps’ chances in that match up, too. KSU is carried by guard play and their stars are 6′0 and 6′1. They would have trouble guarding Vasquez and KSU grabs just one more rebound a game than we do which is a weak spot for us.
Of course this bracket is just for fun but it does a good job in building anticipation.
It’s ok that we are just outside the Top 25. We are heading into a crucial stretch. Clemson at home, VT on the road, Duke at home, UVA on the road. We must go at least 3-1 in these games and we play better when we are in the “spoiler” role.
Nate:
KSU also has a ridiculous, almost Cameronesque home court advantage, which is obviously negated in tournament play. And I agree completely on your top 25 take.
It looks like the Terps placed in 28th in both major polls. It’s still a good place to be with a couple weeks left in the regular season. I think they’re a lock for the tournament even if they split the next two games.
Er, split the next four games.
I agree, split the remaining four for the tournament bid. I was thinking 3-1 builds the best momentum for the post-season. It’s really the quality of the four remaining teams. A home loss to Clemson would hurt. A road loss to VA Tech may not hurt but a win in Blacksburg would be huge. Any win against Duke is great and a loss to Virginia would (and always does) kill. So 2-2 with wins against Clemson and Virginia doesn’t do much. Add a win against Duke or VT and now we’re talking.
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