Part of me feels like it’s still too early to look ahead, with all that lugubrious Korie Luciousness still sitting like a large bag of marbles somewhere in my digestive track. But a bigger part of me is just plain sick of hearing and thinking about it. The epitaphs have been written, the fallen lamented, the heroes canonized, the cold and bitter consolations consumed, the hangovers nursed. Plus, it is my understanding that blogging is a medium of immediacy. Blogs don’t gaze at navels. They bite, they chew, they spit, they rinse, they repeat.
So let’s talk about next season then. Maryland lost three players, but will gain at least five (extra spaces courtesy of Jin Soo Choi’s departure and Jerome Burney’s foot). The Terps could actually add another one because David Pearman is on a year-to-year scholarship. But wait, there’s more. They could gain yet another scholly if Steve Goins transfers — a move that has been rumored for over a year now. With five freshmen already, if they end up adding more players, they could go after some juco transfers, which is less risky when you’ve got a younger team without a ton of existing chemistry to interfere with coughstevefranciscough.
I’m not going to get into what might happen with the other potential slots…for now, it’s just conjecture. So I’ll talk about the players we know will take the floor next year for the Terps.
Projected starters:
Point Guard: Adrian Bowie, senior
Shooting Guard: Cliff Tucker, senior
Small Forward: Sean Mosley, junior
Power Forward: Dino Gregory, senior
Center: Jordan Williams, sophomore
Projected reserves (subject to change given scholarship situation):
Point Guard: Terrell Stoglin, freshman
Shooting Guard: Pe’Shon Howard, freshman; David Pearman, senior
Small Forward: Mychal Parker, freshman; Hauker Palsson, freshman; Ersin Levent, junior
Power Forward: James Padgett, sophomore; Ashton Pankey, freshman
Center: Steve Goins, junior
A lot of people are way down on this team given its lack of experience and, how should I put this, floor leadership. But there are some good pieces here. This can be a tournament team.
Going into the season, the main source of tension for me is the glaring, obvious fact that Adrian Bowie is not a point guard. It’s not that he’s a bad point guard. It’s that he is not a point guard. I don’t see any barking cats around here, and I also don’t see any Adrian Bowie point guards. Whenever the scientific community wants to clue us in on how to genetically fuse Bowie and Tucker into one body, that would be great. Seriously, science, any time now.
Tension could come into play here because of Gary Williams’ well-known loyalty to older players. That philosophy could be sorely tested, as true point guard Terrell Stoglin will be waiting in the wings. Stoglin just finished leading his Arizona high school team to a state championship and is the second-leading scorer in the state’s history, behind some guy named Mike Bibby. He averaged 30 points and six assists his senior year. He’s not what you’d call a physical freak, his defense is suspect, and there’s clearly a big learning curve in front of him, but if he adapts, they may have to give him a shot, assuming Bowie plays PG next season like he did in limited chances this season — that is, like a lizard trying to tap dance. Gary Williams is a good coach, so it could change. Lizards can also learn to tap dance — I seen it with my own eyes. But it is difficult, is what I’m saying. It is not probable. If Stoglin gets the nod and they start using Bowie again at SG, that will cut into playing time for either Bowie or Tucker. Neither exactly has a proven team-first reputation, especially Tucker, who has openly complained about PT in the past. So if Gary did go with Stoglin, he would not only be going against his own tendencies, but potentially creating locker room strife. On the other hand, what if Bowie simply can’t run point? That, really, is the question.
Speaking of young guys, after Jordan Williams’ amazing season, it seems, as Testudo Times has pointed out, that this will be his team next season. People handed the future to Sean Mosley when he came out with guns blazing, but as he cooled off later in the season J-Will became more promising as next season’s centerpiece.
Front-court depth, however, will still be an issue. James Padgett’s offseason will be important; you may recall that Gary Williams has already challenged him to gain 15 pounds of muscle. Freshman 6′9″ PF Ashton Pankey lost most of his senior HS season with a troubling leg injury (his recovery timetable is still uncertain). So we have no idea what we’ll get from him. On the other hand, we know exactly what we’ll get from Dino Gregory. So yes. Front-court depth will be an issue.
Interestingly, our two most exciting freshmen (in my opinion anyway) will be the most buried on the depth chart. Point guard/scoring guard Pe’shon Howard is an exciting player (ridiculous passing) and could be the team’s next emotional leader. Swingman Mychal Parker (55 on Rivals) is basically the new Landon Milbourne. But with Mosley and the BowTuck Monster in front of them, it could be tough for either to get real minutes right away.
So there you have it. In my opinion, this is a team that’s going to have to make a serious commitment to defense if it wants to compete next season. They have the athleticism to lock teams up, but won’t have a lot of scoring options and will struggle if they lose focus or discipline. I’ll pencil them in for 19 wins and a season on the bubble. We shall see.
(This post is also published on Bleacher Report.)
Great take. So the eight man rotation looks like: Bowie, Tucker, Mosley, Gregory, Williams, Padgett, Stoglin, Parker/JC Transfer. That team should be good in 2011-2012.
Like it or not, Bowie will probably be the starting point guard for all of next year. Gary has done a great job of getting unnatural point guards to play the position in the past. Gilchrist and Vasquez were basically shooting guards that converted to the point to up their NBA stock. DJ Strawberry had feet for hands and managed to handle the position for a year. I think Gary can groom Bowie for it in the off-season. The flex gets most of its penetration off of cuts and slashes, so they don’t necessarily need that traditional break you down with a cross-over point guard to make the offense work.
There will be plenty of shots to go around for Williams and Mosley. Mosley is probably the biggest x-factor for next year. The Terps need him to be a go to guy. He seemed to disappear down the stretch this year. He needs an offseason of 500 jumpers per day.
Is Terrell Stoglin really a “true point guard”? REALLY?
Height and build wise? Yes.
But he sure seems like a shoot first guard based on his numbers. Maybe the whole “best player on an ok team” thing means he’s more PG-oriented than it first appears, but to these eyes it’s pretty clear we’re a team without a single true PG on the team.
Really, CK.
I don’t think being a scorer at the point guard position disqualifies you from being a true point guard. It’s the difference between, say, Stephon Marbury and Chris Paul…not comparing them to Stoglin, just illustrating that a big difference can exist between scoring point guards.
From everything I’ve read, Stoglin has a really high basketball IQ, and his decision-making as a PG has never been questioned in any of the research I’ve done, and I have no reason to question it based on the video I’ve seen (if you’ve seen something along those lines, please share it). Don’t forget that Stoglin got six assists last season as well…that’s a lot for high school. Plus, as you note, his physical dimensions completely disqualify him from playing any other position on the floor. But in a nutshell, I don’t think it’s fair to assume that scoring ability means a player can’t also run an offense effectively. Not everyone is John Gilchrist.
Stoglin played the point until his junior year, and he played both the point and the two last year. He was basically the best guy on his high school team and had the ball in his hands on every play regardless of the line-up. He might as well have played every position on the floor. Given his physical stature and talents he’ll likely play the point next year, take some HGH at the end of the season, and come back with four inches of head growth in 2011-2012, thereby qualifying him to shoot more.
Seriously, I think he’s a shooting point guard, and I maintain that it’s fine to have that sort of guy in this offense. As long as he moves the ball along in transition and looks down court for runners, he can play the point in the CP. This offense will probably be even more inside out with Williams getting more of the load next season, so delivering the ball in the post and drifting to the open spot is something they’re likely going to be working on with all the guards regardless of their position.
He did play some two in HS, but has always very definitively identified himself as a point guard, especially in the college context. What you hint at is correct…he was clearly the best play on his high school team and was a bit of a one-man gang. Half of his assists were probably to himself. And 6′1″ is not really “undersized” in high school. But it is in the ACC, especially for a two.
I think at Maryland he will absolutely play the point guard position. No question whatsoever in my mind. Not only because all indications are that he WANTS to do that, but because his lack of size and athleticism (he’s more a shooter than a slasher) means he HAS to.
But yeah, being a good scorer and being a good point guard are not mutually exclusive things, and neither Stoglin, the team, or any of the media experts I have read have given any indication whatsoever that there is any concern or question about his fitness or willingness to be a point guard and nothing but a point guard for Maryland. (Again, if anyone has seen anything different, please do share.)
Pe’Shon will play the point; Terrell moving to the 2 guard.
Remeber this post when it hapens.
We shall see…you remember it, too.
I am class of 71. Guys like Gilchrist rarely comes along that often. I have not seen anyone in the ACC as domininat as Gilchrist during the greatest ACC championship run since Gilchrist departed. If Stoglin is as good as he is perceived, then he could very well become another Maryland great PG. Take a look at Vasquez, he first two years were erratic at best. But he has really matured in his last year and helped the Terps to a strong finish. Oh yes, a great PG is everything on a team. Is there another Steve Blake somewhere?
Mychal Parker is probably the greatest addition to the team I expect big things from him this year!!! He can play the point too. He dropped 41 on John Walls in High School.