In some ways, the ACC basketball formula is not difficult to decipher. You run it, you gun it, you rinse, you repeat.
The take-home message? It’s a lot of running. A lot of gunning. That’s why depth is such a key issue. And that’s why Maryland’s underwhelming bench production is causing some gastroenterological discomfort in some territories of Terpland.
Before the Florida State game, the eight bench players — Adrian Bowie, Cliff Tucker, Dino Gregory, James Padgett, Jin Soo Choi, Steve Goins, David Pearman, and Ersin Levent – were averaging 2.6 points on 35 percent shooting, 0.5 assists, and 1.3 rebounds in 10 minutes of playing time per player per game. Thus, the entire bench is delivering 21 points, four assists and 11 rebounds each game — or, 26 percent of the scoring, 30 percent of the rebounds, and 23 percent of the assists. Compare this to North Carolina, whose reserves are scoring 3.3 points per player per game, or 42 percent of the team’s points. On the other end of the rankings spectrum, the eight N.C. State reserves who have attempted a shot of any kind are averaging 2.5 points per player per game, or 30 percent of the team’s points.
It’s more than numbers, though…we need bodies to man the perimeter and/or establish any semblance of an effective press. An unreliable bench also carries clear implications for Maryland’s starters, for whom a lack of bench production means heavy minutes…I did the math and it’s 29 mpg to be exact, tied with Duke and Wake for most in the ACC. It also means extra performance anxiety for the starters, maybe not exactly what the doctor ordered for this fairly high-strung team and its fairly high-strung best player.
But lately, the bench is showing signs of life. The jailbreak that was Winston-Salem State was encouraging, but it was still Winston-Salem State, a veritable open bar of stat-quaffing. More meaningful to me was yesterday’s Florida State win. Cliff Tucker led the reserves with eight points in 16 minutes. Dino Gregory gave his most Dino-Gregorian effort yet, with the putbacks and the rebounds and the yeoman’s defense and the hey hey hey. Padgett had some confident moves on the low block that were particularly impressive against the Ents of FSU. Of the reserves, only Adrian Bowie was held scoreless (more on him later). But generally, slowly, gradually, this bench may be starting to emerge.
That trend will probably continue to some extent due to a few self-corrections. I included every reserve in the numbers above, because they do log minutes in cupcake games. Moving forward, though, it’s reasonable to expect that the Levents and Pearmans of the world, God bless them, will probably not see game action for the remainder of the season (with the possible exception of Longwood). Gone as well is Jin Soo Choi, as are his binary code stat lines. Freshman Padgett continues his development. And of course, Dino Gregory is back from suspension and rounding into form.
Let’s assume Dino keeps on his current pace and is a solid bench contributor the rest of the way. He’s our best overall reserve and number one glue guy, to use a phrase that just passed Tom Brady and is rapidly overtaking American Idol on my big list of things I find to be tired. That really leaves Tucker, Bowie, Padgett, and Goins as the wild cards here. Even with Choi’s departure, Goins’ involvement remains iffy at best as long as he continues to battle The Little Knee Injury That Could. Padgett is showing flashes, but that’s still all they are — flashes. Anything we get from him is gravy. But his play is promising. His minutes and numbers plummeted with Dino’s return, but he still plays hard whenever he sees the court, and always seems to unveil a new improvement or wrinkle to his game (last night, it was a nifty post pivot and sparkling two-for-two from the free throw line. Seriously…that’s sparkling.)
Which brings us back to Tucker and Bowie, or as I like to call them, The Mystery Twins. Great name, right? I was thinking about printing up some T-shirts. Apparel aside, one minute they’re MIA, the next they’re the best athlete on the team. Right now Tucker is the one rolling, but that could change any moment. His big breakout came against Winston-Salem, but began well before that with a renewed commitment to practice and teammates. Nevertheless, in the early season he managed to burrow his way into Coach Williams’ bad graces yet again, climaxing (if that’s the right word) with a DNP-CD against Indiana and a big four minutes versus Eastern Kentucky. But over the last five games or so, his minutes and production have stabilized. But that could change at any moment, so how stable is it really? That’s life…with The Mystery Twins. Coming soon to NBC!
Adrian Bowie seems a little less mercurial than Cliff, but on the other hand he has just plain underperformed in 15 mpg this year, which is way down from his 24 average last season. Right now, Bowie is a disappointment and a soft spot in this Maryland rotation. And that’s coming from a bona fide Bowie fan. Not to wax all philosophical and crap, but he seems to have stopped growing as a player. He’s only averaging 3.4 ppg (to Tucker’s 6) and has pulled the donut hole five times, including against FSU. He slashes more than Jason Voorhies but is considerably less devastating with it, in part because he doesn’t have anything else in his game that defenders need to respect. Plus, at 6′2″, he isn’t big enough to be a scoring guard who can stop the other team’s scoring guard. He should be Eric Hayes’ backup, but isn’t. For whatever reason, he isn’t able (or willing) to run the point. Finally, he seems to disappear at strange times. Perhaps it’s just a coincidence, but still interesting that four of his five best statistical ACC games last year (Miami, Florida State, Boston College, and Duke at home) were all Terps losses.
So he’s a bit of a square peg in a round hole for this lineup. Tucker is more of a natural fit in terms of his size and his skill set. As his attitude has improved, so have his minutes and his game. It’s a self-perpetuating cycle. So with the rotation firming up and more players hitting their stride, perhaps this is the start of a larger trend. Gregory is the star of the bench, but if Tucker can remain consistent, we coax a little more out of Bowie, and Padgett gives us five decent minutes a game, we could really have something here. With the ACC schedule getting into full swing, we need every body we can get.
