Part of me feels like it’s still too early to look ahead, with all that lugubrious Korie Luciousness still sitting like a large bag of marbles somewhere in my digestive track. But a bigger part of me is just plain sick of hearing and thinking about it. The epitaphs have been written, the fallen lamented, the heroes canonized, the cold and bitter consolations consumed, the hangovers nursed. Plus, it is my understanding that blogging is a medium of immediacy. Blogs don’t gaze at navels. They bite, they chew, they spit, they rinse, they repeat.

So let’s talk about next season then. Maryland lost three players, but will gain at least five (extra spaces courtesy of Jin Soo Choi’s departure and Jerome Burney’s foot).  The Terps could actually add another one because David Pearman is on a year-to-year scholarship.  But wait, there’s more. They could gain yet another scholly if Steve Goins transfers — a move that has been rumored for over a year now. With five freshmen already, if they end up adding more players, they could go after some juco transfers, which is less risky when you’ve got a younger team without a ton of existing chemistry to interfere with coughstevefranciscough.

I’m not going to get into what might happen with the other potential slots…for now, it’s just conjecture. So I’ll talk about the players we know will take the floor next year for the Terps.

Projected starters:

Point Guard: Adrian Bowie, senior
Shooting Guard: Cliff Tucker, senior
Small Forward: Sean Mosley, junior
Power Forward: Dino Gregory, senior
Center: Jordan Williams, sophomore

Projected reserves (subject to change given scholarship situation):

Point Guard: Terrell Stoglin, freshman
Shooting Guard: Pe’Shon Howard, freshman; David Pearman, senior
Small Forward: Mychal Parker, freshman; Hauker Palsson, freshman; Ersin Levent, junior
Power Forward: James Padgett, sophomore; Ashton Pankey, freshman
Center: Steve Goins, junior

A lot of people are way down on this team given its lack of experience and, how should I put this, floor leadership. But there are some good pieces here. This can be a tournament team.

Going into the season, the main source of tension for me is the glaring, obvious fact that Adrian Bowie is not a point guard. It’s not that he’s a bad point guard. It’s that he is not a point guard. I don’t see any barking cats around here, and I also don’t see any Adrian Bowie point guards. Whenever the scientific community wants to clue us in on how to genetically fuse Bowie and Tucker into one body, that would be great. Seriously, science, any time now.

Tension could come into play here because of Gary Williams’ well-known loyalty to older players. That philosophy could be sorely tested, as true point guard Terrell Stoglin will be waiting in the wings. Stoglin just finished leading his Arizona high school team to a state championship and is the second-leading scorer in the state’s history, behind some guy named Mike Bibby. He averaged 30 points and six assists his senior year. He’s not what you’d call a physical freak, his defense is suspect, and there’s clearly a big learning curve in front of him, but if he adapts, they may have to give him a shot, assuming Bowie plays PG next season like he did in limited chances this season — that is, like a lizard trying to tap dance.  Gary Williams is a good coach, so it could change. Lizards can also learn to tap dance — I seen it with my own eyes.  But it is difficult, is what I’m saying.  It is not probable.  If Stoglin gets the nod and they start using Bowie again at SG, that will cut into playing time for either Bowie or Tucker. Neither exactly has a proven team-first reputation, especially Tucker, who has openly complained about PT in the past.  So if Gary did go with Stoglin, he would not only be going against his own tendencies, but potentially creating locker room strife. On the other hand, what if Bowie simply can’t run point?  That, really, is the question.

Speaking of young guys, after Jordan Williams’ amazing season, it seems, as Testudo Times has pointed out, that this will be his team next season. People handed the future to Sean Mosley when he came out with guns blazing, but as he cooled off later in the season J-Will became more promising as next season’s centerpiece.

Front-court depth, however, will still be an issue. James Padgett’s offseason will be important; you may recall that Gary Williams has already challenged him to gain 15 pounds of muscle.  Freshman 6′9″ PF Ashton Pankey lost most of his senior HS season with a troubling leg injury (his recovery timetable is still uncertain). So we have no idea what we’ll get from him. On the other hand, we know exactly what we’ll get from Dino Gregory. So yes. Front-court depth will be an issue.

Interestingly, our two most exciting freshmen (in my opinion anyway) will be the most buried on the depth chart. Point guard/scoring guard Pe’shon Howard is an exciting player (ridiculous passing) and could be the team’s next emotional leader.  Swingman Mychal Parker (55 on Rivals) is basically the new Landon Milbourne. But with Mosley and the BowTuck Monster in front of them, it could be tough for either to get real minutes right away.

So there you have it. In my opinion, this is a team that’s going to have to make a serious commitment to defense if it wants to compete next season. They have the athleticism to lock teams up, but won’t have a lot of scoring options and will struggle if they lose focus or discipline. I’ll pencil them in for 19 wins and a season on the bubble. We shall see.

(This post is also published on Bleacher Report.)

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Sometimes in life, you learn something that, as you hear it, is unsurprising to the point of being almost reassuring. For example, when I first heard that one of the athletes in this year’s Winter Olympics was actually competing while pregnant, the thought that immediately went through my head was “Curling. It has to be curling. How can it not be curling? She has to be a curler.”

And sure enough, she is. I was right, and all was right with the world.

(I actually don’t have anything against curling. In fact, a few of my old friends were into curling, and I used to enjoy going to their matches because there was always a bar there, and the spectators and curlers would get plastered together. It’s just part of the curling culture. We should really institute an Olympics of Sports That Serve As Excuses to Drink. You could have curling, ice fishing, any other kind of fishing, golf, or anything involving cards or dice. This could happen. It’s not like NBC has a ton else going on. This is why we should clear out the dead Zuckerwood and make me the new president of NBC. Why not? Sign my online petition! www.seriouslyIreallythinkIcouldbepresidentofNBC.com)

I don’t normally get into college basketball — mainly because there’s no Trade Machine — but some more of these so-unsurprising-it’s-reassuring facts (which for confusion’s sake I will refer to as SUIR facts from here on out) emerged for me a few days ago when I began my annual bracketology crash course. After all, March is just around the corner, people.

I was talking with a famous friend of mine who I won’t name — let’s just refer to him as Jim Kimmel — and he clued me in that Duke was on top in the ACC. There’s SUIR fact number two. Along with Wake Forest, the Blue Devils are already trying on dresses for the big dance. But despite the assertions that the ACC is down, the conference will still probably get six or more teams into the tournament. Among those now on the bubble are Clemson, FSU, Ga. Tech, Va. Tech, and a little team called the Maryland Terrapins.

And there’s SUIR fact number three.

The Terps are one of the most bubbleicious teams in the country. Never quite a lock, never quite dead. Greivis Vasquez and company recovered from a classic Grade B Level Two Combination Head Trauma/Explosive Diarrhea Loss last Saturday to the hated Dookies by absolutely murdering a decent Virginia team in College Park on Monday. Now, they make their second trip to North Carolina in four days (as part of a snow-related schedule adjustment that has them playing four games in a week, which the selection committee, to their credit, has taken note of) to play a dying-quail N.C. State squad.

If conventional wisdom holds, the 17-7 Terrapins will need to win at least three more games to get 20 wins overall, 10 wins in the conference, and a tourney berth. A win on the road, even against the unspectacular Pack, would be helpful, as the Terps are 5-6 away from Crappy Cable Provider Center (12-1 at home) and face a tough remaining home slate of Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Duke. So holding serve won’t be a cake walk from here on in.

The fact that Maryland is 2-6 against opponents with top-50 RPIs (2-7 if you count William and Mary, which ranks 51) means the Terps don’t have a lot of margin for error. If they take care of business against “beatable” opponents like N.C. State and Virginia Tech, then get at least one of their final three home games, that should be enough.  Given this, and given that the Terps are 15-0 against “lesser” opponents, and given that they beat N.C. State by 24 in their first season meeting, the Terps should victimize the Pack tonight.

But that leads me to SUIR fact number four, and reason no. 324 why I love sports: You just never know.

I will now light myself on fire.

I can see all you Maryland fans making The Manning Face out there. It just proves my Andy Dufresne Corrolary, which follows that any team without a major championship or similar accomplishment within the past ten years that directly succeed the achievement of said accomplishment are frustrated to the point of making strange noises and expressions that influence their teams toward negative outcomes in minor situations, thus increasing the likelihood of the opponents of these teams paying off on prop bets. So if you happen to be in Vegas this weekend, bet the house against Maryland winning the tip-off. It’s all in my book, now available on Amazon. You can thank me later.

As for tonight, the matchups and issues remain much the same as they were for the first game. Jordan Williams and Dino Gregory again need to lock up All-ACC candidate Tracy Smith in the post, who has averaged 18 points and 6.6 rebounds since the loss to Maryland, including most recently a 20 and 5 in a loss to UNC. Gregory, in particular, prevented Smith from getting comfortable in the low post…Dino has been struggling of late, however, so a big game from him will be key. Dennis Horner and Maryland blood enemy Javier Gonzalez remain the Pack’s second- and third-leading scorers, respectively, but because of respective lack of athleticism and size, they are fairly easy covers for Maryland’s dynamic guards. On the flip side, N.C. State had no answer for Maryland’s guards and small forwards, who combined for 53 points on 15-32 shooting while holding Horner to four.

But here’s where it gets slightly interesting. N.C. State is 2-9 in the conference and desparately needs a win for pride, and possibly to quell the hot seat coach Sidney Lowe finds himself on. Maryland, as noted, is playing its third game in five days, with a Saturday showdown with Georgia Tech looming. And this is Vasquez’s first visit to Raleigh since hitting a meaningless three at the end of the Terps’ victory last year, which he later said he did to quiet the Wolfpack fans, who he claimed were making racist remarks. I don’t see that action making the Pack fans any quieter. Bottom line: Maryland may have a fairly low energy level for this one. N.C. State will not.

But still, I mean, how is this not a breeze for Maryland? How? How is it possible? They should get this win under their belt, then move on to a tough final stretch that will determine their postseason fate. Then again, that’s why we watch sports: you just never know.

I’m sorry this was so short.

Prediction: Maryland 93, N.C. State 70

Game starts at 9 p.m. and will be televised in D.C. on Comcast SportsNet-Plus (CSN- Regular will join the game in progress after the Wizards telecast).The game can also be heard on WJZ-FM (105.7) and WJZ-AM (1300) in B-more and WGTB-FM (94.7) in D.C. 

(Photo credit: Rocking the Suburbs)

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Another big game for Maryland, another chance for an indisputable resume builder, another letdown. This time it was a 77-56 loss to no. 8 Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Some points:

  1. Hey, look at it this way. Last year the Terps lost by 41 in Cameron. So does that mean they’re twice as good this year? I say yes. I don’t have much.
  2. Sure, Duke played well. But make no mistake: Maryland had the capacity to win this game and just lost it.
  3. The Vasquez line: 17 points on 7-12 shooting, 7 boards, 4 assists, 3 turnovers, 4 fouls. Not bad, until you consider that 14 of those points came (a) when the team was down by at least 20, or (b) during one all-too-familiar, too-little, too-late mini-run midway through the second half that chopped Duke’s lead to a razor-thin margin of 10. In other words, when the game was actually “competitive,” he had 3 points. A-Rod lives.
  4. But let me not lay all this at Vasquez’s feet. Jordan Williams reminded me today that he is, indeed, still a freshman. He finished with a decent 6 points and 7 boards, but let Duke’s frontcourt run wild, especially Brian Zoubek, whose 16 and 17 were ever so slightly above his season average of 6 and 5. Tough game for Jordan, but he’ll be back.
  5. Speaking of coming back, Dino Gregory, you can’t see me right now, because you’re unconscious, but I’ve got one paddle on the A and one paddle on the N. Clear! Seriously, three points on 0-3 shooting and three rebounds, plus some very shaky defense, is not what you want to see. Someone please find this man some confidence.
  6. Maryland turnovers: 14. Duke turnovers: 7.
  7. I’ve already touched on Vasquez, but the other seniors weren’t helping. Eric Hayes’ Cameron woes continued with 8 points (2 in second half), 3 assists, and 4 TOs, while Landon Milbourne chipped in a dismal two points on 1-6 shooting and three boards…his worst game of the season in the biggest game of the season. I’ve said it before, but I’ll say it again: what good is senior leadership if they don’t lead when they are needed the most?
  8. Maryland played with no urgency. Is it possible to look past Duke?
  9. Maryland is a bunch of stupid cornswaggling mugglefragging yellow belly underacheiving underperforming chokers. How’s that for hardcore analysis. I’m sick of going out to watch Duke games and rooting for Maryland, year after year, only to face the inevitable walk of shame through a little pocket of smirking Duke fans who always find a way to position themselves between me and the exits. VOMMMMITTTT.
  10. This isn’t a season killer, and with Virginia et al on the horizon we have other things to focus on now. But still. After this, it feels like the best-case scenario is another humble second-round exit. You can’t just beat Longwood 100 times and wonder why you’re not an elite team. Eventually, you have to show up in the big spots or you’re just another dog sitting on the porch, watching.
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The Terps survived a horrendous first half by coming out hot after intermission, and won 71-67 in Tallahassee yesterday.  If yesterday’s win at Florida State proved anything, it proved that Maryland can win ugly.  In the first half Maryland seemed stuck in the same fog they were in at Clemson earlier in the week.  How did they snap out of it?  Let’s go to the Porsche Keys to the Win:

  • Vasquez (23), Milbourne (18), Williams (14), and Hayes (12) had 67 of the Terps 71 points.  The rest of the team was 0-10 from the field for 4 PTS.  This was the second game in a row where the bench was nonexistent.  Luckily, Florida State performed a similar disappearing act.  The Noles got 58 points out of four players and nine out of the rest.  On Thursday night, Maryland’s best four outperformed Florida State’s best four.
  • At the start of the game Florida State was able to dictate the pace, turning the game into a helter skelter track meet and trapping the Terps into turnovers.  Maryland managed just 25 points by half time, but they were still only down four points.  At halftime, Gary Williams made the adjustments necessary to get the Terps into their set offense, and the team rattled off seven unanswered points right away to take a four point lead.  As is often the case, Gary Williams out-coached his opponent.
  • From there, the Terps were able to maintain a lead for most of the second half, until the very end of the game when Jordan Williams had to start sitting due to foul trouble.  The Seminoles tied the game with three minutes left, and suddenly, the crowd was back in it.  Who was going to step up?  Dino Gregory,that’s who!  That’s right, Dino freaking Gregory comes out of nowhere, takes a charge, and Vasquez sinks a couple of FT’s to preserve the lead.  Dino was an unlikely hero after he was largely absent for most of the game, but that key play enabled the Terps to win the game.  Overall, the game was that close.  It could have gone either way.  Kudos to Dino for shaking off the rust and making a big stop.
  • I love me some Greivis.  Just when the haters started screaming at their TV’s and secretly hoping Greivis would blow it, Vasquez turns it on with a running jumper and forces a couple of fouls to keep the scoring going.  His final line – 23 PTS /7 RB/7 AST – was pretty close to a triple-double.  You may howl over his five turnovers but most of them came off of some tight traps, and he was better than a 1/1 AST/TO ratio on the night, so that’s a good line.  I love how he incited the crowd from the opening tip.  He thrives on the hate, so keep hating bitches.  GREAT JOB GREIVIS!  M-V-P!  M-V-P!
  • It was a nice night for Milbourne.  He was, once again, Steady Eddie when the rest of the team started crapping themselves.  18 PTS and 6 RB (including 4 huge ORB) doesn’t tell the story of how he continually stepped up on both sides of the ball.  He’s the yin to Grevis’s yang.  Landon is such a tweener that I didn’t think that he had a lot of pro upside coming into this season, but the more of these clutch ACC games he has, the more looks he’s going to get from teams that have a need at the small forward position.  That is how well Milbourne is playing right now.
  • I’ve said before that Jordan Williams is the missing piece to the Terps puzzle for success, and this game just proved the point.  With Williams (14 PTS, 7/11 FG, 6 RB, 2 blocks) in the game, Maryland looked confident in their sets, and they were able to work the ball inside out against a couple of big dudes from Florida State.  Without him, the front court looked small and disorganized.  How high is Williams’s upside?  I the Terps will be his show by next season.  Reports are that he is a humble hard worker that likes to learn.  If he can continue to learn and hit the gym to chisel that big frame, I can see Williams becoming a first round NBA draft pick in a few years.

It wasn’t pretty, but a win is a win is a win is a win.  The team turned it around in the second half and started shooting the ball very well.  That should bode well for this Sunday’s game against UNC.

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There is a growing opinion (mainly among myself) that the full-court press in general — and Maryland’s in particular — is becoming a bit of a relic.  Following its Kentucky and UNLV heyday in the mid 80s to early 90s, the number of teams heavily using the traditional full-court trap seems to have greatly diminished. This is perhaps due in no small part to an increase in early college departures and the NCAA’s 1991 decision to reduce scholarships from 15 to 13.  These changes mean teams can no longer simply overwhelm opponents with superior depth and athleticism. It may also have to do with the fact that the press is, frankly, pretty easy to solve. Just don’t panic, keep the ball moving, and throw over your defenders for an easy bucket when the opportunity inevitably presents itself.

That trend changed for the Terps on Tuesday against Miami.  Maryland pressed them into 14 turnovers in the first half, and breakaway layups and and-ones were a regular occurrence for the Terps. After building a 17-point lead, Gary Williams called off the dogs in the second half, and Miami committed only three additional turnovers the rest of the way.

But it was probably more a blip than anything else.  Miami’s  main ballhandler is a freshman and all but one of their guards are underclassmen. They’re greener than a bin of alfalfa sprouts, and crumple just about as quickly under pressure. (Zing!)  The larger trend is that of the press getting kind of sort of absolutely shredded. For example, the Cincinnati loss turned into a jailbreak, with Maryland giving up 12 fast-break points to score 16 while sacrificing valuable help defense.  Even William and Mary — up this year, sure, but still no Kentucky — solved it to the tune of six three-pointers on 50 percent shooting before the Terps retreated to the zone after halftime.

Now take the recent 88-64 blowout of N.C. State, in which Maryland pressed very little and emerged with decisive advantages in fast-break points (10-2) and turnovers (11-9), all while holding N.C. State 18 points below its scoring average from the previous three games.

Which brings us to Sunday’s big showdown with Clemson.  It will be extremely interesting to see what Maryland does given that Tigers point guard Demontez Stitt has a gimpy ankle.  Here’s hoping they ”repress,” if you will, their full-court urges. Pressure defense is and should remain a Maryland signature, but the all-out full-court press seems like more of a situational play at this point. Is it a coincidence that several recent games, featuring a more judicious use of the press, have heralded no less than a full defensive turnaround?  With cagey (and decidedly long-limbed) veterans Greivis Vasquez and Landon Milbourne committing fully to defense, Sean Mosely become a stone-cold defensive stopper, a tougher and scrappier inside presence led by Jordan Williams and Dino Gregory, and some booster fuel off the bench in the form of Adrian Bowie (we’ll see if it sticks), this team doesn’t need to resort to gimmicks.

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What…what just happened? Wait…did I…did I actually call this game perfectly?  Is that what happened? Did my predicted Maryland butt-kicking of N.C. State just come to fruition?  Whatever happened, it’s sweet, baby, as the Terps smeared N.C. State Wolfpack 88-64.  I only wish my score prediction hadn’t been so conservative. To the points:

  1. What else did I predict? Can you refresh my memory? I believe I said Sean Mosely would go off. Well, he ended up with 13 points (and it would have been more if not for a somewhat off shooting night), 7 boards and 4 assists. Scott Wood, welcome to the ACC.
  2. I believe I also predicted a big night from one Cliff Tucker. And I believe you can add another check to the “things Scott was right about” column. Eleven points and one steal in 17 crisp minutes. Bravo, sir. And Cliff, nice job, too. Okay, I’ve had my moment.
  3. Maryland did a great job around the rim defensively. They limited the Pack’s second chances and always seemed to be drawing fouls, rather than committing them (21 State fouls to 16 for the Terps), which means they were a little quicker to the ball.
  4. Maryland did not do a great job around the rim offensively. I saw Jordan Williams, Eric Hayes, Dino Gregory, and Mosely all miss some easy ones. It’s an odd recurring theme with no quick (or at least apparent) solution.
  5. Speaking of Dino, though, and getting back to defense, Dino did an outstanding job on Tracy Smith. He used great footwork to stay between Smith and the basket and keep him out of the lane. Tracy still netted an 18 and 10, but he sure had to work for it.
  6. One more point on the defense: N.C. State averages 72 points per game on 46 percent shooting. Tonight, they got 64 points on 36 percent shooting. Only eight points below average, but again, we made them work. And they didn’t seem to enjoy it. Maybe that’s why an eight-point halftime lead went to 17 by the 10-minute mark, and ended up at 22.
  7. A nice 9-9 for Jordan Williams, but more aggression at the rim would be a positive.
  8. In addition to his great offensive game, Mosely also led the way in shutting down Dennis Horner, the team’s second leading scorer (and 18th in the ACC). Horner got four points on 1-5 shooting, well below his average of 13.
  9. Vasquez had 19 to lead all scorers, but for the second consecutive game, just about all of it came in the second half. Who is he now, Kobe Bryant? He is The Closer. The Vasquez Shimmy is like the Red Auerbach Cigar, only minus the ten championships and hundreds of victories and so forth.
  10. And last but most certainly not least: CONGRATULATIONS TO GARY WILLIAMS ON HIS 1000TH GAME!!! I love you, man.

(Photo credit: UMTerps.com)

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In some ways, the ACC basketball formula is not difficult to decipher.  You run it, you gun it, you rinse, you repeat.

The take-home message?  It’s a lot of running. A lot of gunning. That’s why depth is such a key issue. And that’s why Maryland’s underwhelming bench production is causing some gastroenterological discomfort in some territories of Terpland.

Before the Florida State game, the eight bench players — Adrian Bowie, Cliff Tucker, Dino Gregory, James Padgett, Jin Soo Choi, Steve Goins, David Pearman, and Ersin Levent –  were averaging 2.6 points on 35 percent shooting, 0.5 assists, and 1.3 rebounds in 10 minutes of playing time per player per game.  Thus, the entire bench is delivering 21 points, four assists and 11 rebounds each game — or, 26 percent of the scoring, 30 percent of the rebounds, and 23 percent of the assists. Compare this to North Carolina, whose reserves are scoring 3.3 points per player per game, or 42 percent of the team’s points. On the other end of the rankings spectrum, the eight N.C. State reserves who have attempted a shot of any kind are averaging 2.5 points per player per game, or 30 percent of the team’s points.  

It’s more than numbers, though…we need bodies to man the perimeter and/or establish any semblance of an effective press.  An unreliable bench also carries clear implications for Maryland’s starters, for whom a lack of bench production means heavy minutes…I did the math and it’s 29 mpg to be exact, tied with Duke and Wake for most in the ACC.  It also means extra performance anxiety for the starters, maybe not exactly what the doctor ordered for this fairly high-strung team and its fairly high-strung best player.  

But lately, the bench is showing signs of life. The jailbreak that was Winston-Salem State was encouraging, but it was still Winston-Salem State, a veritable open bar of stat-quaffing.  More meaningful to me was yesterday’s Florida State win.  Cliff Tucker led the reserves with eight points in 16 minutes. Dino Gregory gave his most Dino-Gregorian effort yet, with the putbacks and the rebounds and the yeoman’s defense and the hey hey hey. Padgett had some confident moves on the low block that were particularly impressive against the Ents of FSU. Of the reserves, only Adrian Bowie was held scoreless (more on him later). But generally, slowly, gradually, this bench may be starting to emerge.

That trend will probably continue to some extent due to a few self-corrections.  I included every reserve in the numbers above, because they do log minutes in cupcake games. Moving forward, though, it’s reasonable to expect that the Levents and Pearmans of the world, God bless them, will probably not see game action for the remainder of the season (with the possible exception of Longwood). Gone as well is Jin Soo Choi, as are his binary code stat lines. Freshman Padgett continues his development. And of course, Dino Gregory is back from suspension and rounding into form.

Let’s assume Dino keeps on his current pace and is a solid bench contributor the rest of the way. He’s our best overall reserve and number one glue guy, to use a phrase that just passed Tom Brady and is rapidly overtaking American Idol on my big list of things I find to be tired. That really leaves Tucker, Bowie, Padgett, and Goins as the wild cards here. Even with Choi’s departure, Goins’ involvement remains iffy at best as long as he continues to battle The Little Knee Injury That Could. Padgett is showing flashes, but that’s still all they are — flashes. Anything we get from him is gravy. But his play is promising. His minutes and numbers plummeted with Dino’s return, but he still plays hard whenever he sees the court, and always seems to unveil a new improvement or wrinkle to his game (last night, it was a nifty post pivot and sparkling two-for-two from the free throw line. Seriously…that’s sparkling.)

Which brings us back to Tucker and Bowie, or as I like to call them, The Mystery Twins. Great name, right? I was thinking about printing up some T-shirts. Apparel aside, one minute they’re MIA, the next they’re the best athlete on the team. Right now Tucker is the one rolling, but that could change any moment. His big breakout came against Winston-Salem, but began well before that with a renewed commitment to practice and teammates. Nevertheless, in the early season he managed to burrow his way into Coach Williams’ bad graces yet again, climaxing (if that’s the right word) with a DNP-CD against Indiana and a big four minutes versus Eastern Kentucky.  But over the last five games or so, his minutes and production have stabilized. But that could change at any moment, so how stable is it really? That’s life…with The Mystery Twins. Coming soon to NBC!

Adrian Bowie seems a little less mercurial than Cliff, but on the other hand he has just plain underperformed in 15 mpg this year, which is way down from his 24 average last season. Right now, Bowie is a disappointment and a soft spot in this Maryland rotation. And that’s coming from a bona fide Bowie fan. Not to wax all philosophical and crap, but he seems to have stopped growing as a player. He’s only averaging 3.4 ppg (to Tucker’s 6) and has pulled the donut hole five times, including against FSU. He slashes more than Jason Voorhies but is considerably less devastating with it, in part because he doesn’t have anything else in his game that defenders need to respect. Plus, at 6′2″, he isn’t big enough to be a scoring guard who can stop the other team’s scoring guard. He should be Eric Hayes’ backup, but isn’t. For whatever reason, he isn’t able (or willing) to run the point. Finally, he seems to disappear at strange times. Perhaps it’s just a coincidence, but still interesting that four of his five best statistical ACC games last year (Miami, Florida State, Boston College, and Duke at home) were all Terps losses.

So he’s a bit of a square peg in a round hole for this lineup. Tucker is more of a natural fit in terms of his size and his skill set. As his attitude has improved, so have his minutes and his game. It’s a self-perpetuating cycle. So with the rotation firming up and more players hitting their stride, perhaps this is the start of a larger trend. Gregory is the star of the bench, but if Tucker can remain consistent, we coax a little more out of Bowie, and Padgett gives us five decent minutes a game, we could really have something here. With the ACC schedule getting into full swing, we need every body we can get.

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Bang!  Ha ha!  Gotcha!  Nah, nah. I’m just playin with you, man.  Just playin with you.   People been takin everything so serious lately.   Come on.  It was just a few guns!  Did people get all up on you like this the last time YOU played a practical joke with some guns? See what I’m saying?

I can’t believe how fast people are turning on Agent Zero.  How they gonna do me like that?   Think back to my contributions recently.  I played in 47 games over the past three seasons. FORTY SEVEN. How many did you play in? Uh-huh. The prosecution rests. That rock don’t chuck itself, homeboy.  You’re treating me like all those games didn’t mean nothing to you.  But go ahead…get rid of me. If you can find another eccentric shoot-first point guard with bad knees who’s willing to play for $111 million, you got my blessing, man. Hey! Why are you dancing? You don’t gotta dance on me, man.

You know, this all reminds me of a story I once heard.  It’s one of those fake stories…fake stories?   Fairy tale, like…FABLE!  It’s like one of those fables.  But it’s about a man who fell in love with a blind woman, okay.   The man loved her so much, he gave her his eyes so she could see.  And when she could see, he asked her to marry him, but she was all like, “I don’t wanna marry no blind man.”  You see?  That blind man was me.  I GAVE YOU MY EYES, DC!  WHAT ELSE YOU WANT!?!?!   Oh, you want your money back?  Sorry, can’t do that.  Artificial atmospheres don’t pay for themselves, do they now.

So as you might have guessed, I got me a little extra down time these days.  It’s just temporary…until these clown-ass cops realize they’re stupid and they got no case.  Except for those guns.  You know.  But F that, man. They’ll learn it’s the media’s fault and then I’ll sue the media and then I’ll write stories about how stupid THEY are!  I’ll be talking about how they get it on with dogs and stuff like that.  It’s just like what they’re doing with me.  Except my shit is true, that’s all.  Your day of reckoning is coming, media.  Believe that.

All my extra free time means I can watch a lot more ball on the TV.  I do it while I’m counting my umbrella collection.  Did you know I collect umbrellas?  Yeah, man, I got like four thousand of them bitches.  It’s just a little habit I picked up on the streets.  When I’m not giving money to schools, you know, I’m buying umbrellas.

One of the ball games I’m gonna watch is Maryland-Florida State. For the 12-2, 18th-ranked Seminoles, it begins and ends with their front court, Solomon Alabi and Chris Singelton. And don’t be sleepin on Ryan Reid, either. That dude does some serious dirty work. In fact, they all do serious dirty work. This is a dirty work team. They are NASTY on the blocks, yo. NASTY on the boards. Serious swag down there, son. They’re tops in the ACC in scoring defense, FG percentage defense (opponents only shoot 33 percent…DAMN!), and blocked shots. Second in steals. Third in defensive rebounding. So let me repeat: they. are. nasty.

That’s why this one might be hard for Maryland. When was the last time you saw them mix it up with anybody? If I was the other coach, I would be like, “Maryland’s good, but you hit em in the mouth one time and they fold.” Hitting dudes in the mouth is this team’s specialty. Jordan Williams and Dino Gregory better be on notice. They’re gonna log some rugged minutes, man. Not to mention Vasquez and Bowie and anyone else that wants to slash their way in there. Something tells me Bowie’s gonna have a quiet game.

On offense, though, things flip around. It’s clear the Noles miss Toney Douglas. And why wouldn’t they? He played there for like 12 years. But now, they got no big-time scoring threat. They dump it inside and hope for the best. They’re methodical, which is a nice way of saying they got no clear options. But you know what? Maryland does. So if it’s Vasquez and Mosely time, and if Hayes gets hot, now we got something.

But assuming FSU’s superior defense and Maryland’s superior offense are equal and opposite, it’s gonna come down to the intangibles. Will, baby. Hustle. Who can impose their game on the other one? I’m saying Florida State gets this one. They’re hungry right now. Maybe Maryland wins the rematch in Tallahassee on Feb. 4, but the Noles are gonna get this one. I’ll bet you on it. I’ll bet you my umbrellas. Well, some of my umbrellas. Actually, I’ll go you one better. I got four guns here that says FSU gets the W. Actually, you don’t even gotta bet me. Just take em, OK? Take those gloves off and hold ‘em in your hand. My gift to you, son! Go ahead, get on outta here.

Prediction: Florida State 79, Maryland 66

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bubble

It's like a looking glass, but more bubbly.

It didn’t have to come to this.  The warning signs were there.  Maui Invitational: bad history.  Nova: guaranteed loss.  William and Mary: trap game.  Hang a left, Maryland, HANG A LEFT!  Can a Gary Williams coached team ever steer itself to safety?  Can they ever find breathing room?  Not in the aughts they can’t.

So here they are at 9-4, unmentioned in the rankings and barely televised so far this year.  I mean, they’re not even on TV in Northern Virginia.  I live 30 min from College Park and have to drive over the border to see a game.  Entering Atlantic Coast Conference play in 2010, the Terps have dropped off the radar.  But fear not Turtle fans.  There is still hope that this team can turn it around.  Damage has been done, but the season is still young.  Here is a brief analysis of the schedule, and some trends to look for in Two Aught Ten.

Schedule - I’m not going to sugarcoat this, the schedule is tough.  It’s really, really tough.  The Testudo Times put up a post on how the national bracketology pollsters are already counting the Terps out.  Luckily, the national pollsters are usually about as accurate as the Farmer’s Almanac is on whether or not we’ll get a big dose of Kentucky Windage next summer.

Let’s do the math.  20 regular season wins is usually the Big Dance requirement for victories for major conference teams, almost akin to how seven wins gets you a bowl game.  Maryland has 9 wins to its credit.  20 – 9 = 11 wins to go.

The Terps have 17 games left in 2010.  There are currently five ranked teams in the ACC – Duke #5, UNC #9, Georgia Tech #17, Florida State #19, and Clemson #21.  Guess what?  The Terps play three of those five teams twice!  That’s 8 0f 17 remaining games against ranked opponents.  Let’s assume that Maryland can win three of those games.  They’ll steal one from Duke, and they should win the home games against Clemson and Georgia Tech.  I’m assuming the Terps will lose both games against Florida State because they seem to have Maryland’s number.  That would put the Terps at twelve wins with three wins against ranked teams, meaning they’d have to win the seven of the remaining eight games on the scheudle against the rest of the ACC and a late season breather against Longwood College.  The result is that it’s possible for the Terps to get in, but there is NO margin for error.

There are some reasons for hope going forward.

Greivis has his groove back - Vasquez averages through the first eight games: 12.8 pts/gm, 4.1 rb/gm, 5.9 ast/gm, 4 TO/gm, 32% FG, 28% 3PT.  Vasquez averages through the last five games: 24.6 pts/gm, 6.4 rb/gm, 6.6 ast/gm, 2 TO/gm, 55% FG, 41% 3PT.  The most encouraging signs here are his increased shooting percentages, but the numbers are way up all around.  As Greivis goes, so go the Terps.  If he can continue this high level of play, then Maryland should be able to make a run at another 20-win season.

Exit Jin Soo Choi - Choi played in nine games in 2010.  He averaged 5 min/gm, 0.8 pts/gm, 1.1 rb/gm, and .8 fouls/gm.  That’s the equivalent of five minutes of playing four-on-five basketball every time he was on the court.

Enter Dino Gregory - One good game does not a trend make, but Dino Gregory seemed to have found his legs against UNC Greensboro in an 11 pt, 8 rb, 2 block performance.  As a former big guy, I can tell you that sometimes it takes a game against an undersized team for you to get your confidence in the paint back.  As Dino’s quality minutes rise, so will Maryland’s presence in the post.

The Best is Yet to Come from Sean Mosley - There is a lot of upside left for Sean Mosley in 2010.  Astonishingly, Mosley is only taking eight shots per game so far this year even though he’s shooting over 60% from the field.  Digest that for a second.  Maryland has a two guard that is shooting 60%+ on the year, and he’s barely taking shots.  Many Terps fans and pundits, including this blog, predicted that this would be the Year of Mosley.  I believe it still will be.

Does Maryland face a tough task in returning to the NCAA Tournament this year?  Of course.  Is that news to anyone?  Of course not.   Rumors of their demise are greatly exaggerated.  The Terps have been a bubble team from the beginning, and they will be until the end of the year.  What else would you expect from a Gary Williams team in the aughts?

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Scene: A nondescript dive in downtown Washington, D.C. Two guys sit at the bar, sipping glasses of beer.

Scott: What day is it? Friday?
Friend: Wednesday.
Scott:  Huh.  I really think it’s Friday.
Friend:  Nope. Hey, how’s your blog going?
Scott:  Kind of in a dead zone right now, but it’ll pick up again after the holidays when Ian and I are back from our vacations.
Friend: But doesn’t Maryland have a game tonight?
Scott: Nah, that’s not for another, like, three days.
Friend: (Pulls out iPhone) Nope. No, they played William and Mary tonight.
Scott: Oh, crap. That’s a serious trap game for us. They beat Wake Forest, you know.
Friend: Uh oh…wait. Hold on a sec.
Scott: What?
Friend: Uhhhh….
Scott: What is it? WHAT?!?! For baby Jesus’ sake, tell me!
Friend: (Shows iPhone screen. William and Mary 83, Maryland 77. Scott looks for the little “F” near the score, hoping not to find it. He finds it.)
Scott:  no
Friend:   My condolences, man.
Scott:   So it begins. (Hand begins to shake.)
Friend:  Come again?
Scott:   The cycle…it begins anew.  (Beer glass shatters in Scott’s hand.) NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Friend:  Dude, you should really have that vein on your forehead looked at. Seriously.  That’s gonna rupture.
Scott:  SMMMMAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAASSSHHHHH!!!!!!!!
(Rips clothes, goes on rampage.)

Now that I’m back to normal size, let me congratulate Maryland on this terrific, almost exquisite loss.  Maryland swore it saw the trap game potential here.  They lost anyway. 

On the court, the Tribe followed the model that Cincinnati, Wisconsin, and others have previously executed with success. Continuing a major theme, in the first half the Tribe easily solved Maryland’s press, possibly because the press is easily solved. On the other side, W&M packed the lane and dared the Terps to shoot. The Terps obliged. Unfortunately, top shooters and senior leaders Vasquez and Eric Hayes each went 2-9 from three. Here’s what Coach Williams said after the game:

“We didn’t have the patience or the toughness to go inside with the basketball, so it turned into a shooting contest and they won.”

Doesn’t this kind of situation call for, what’s the word I’m looking for, coaching?  Aw, shucks, looks like the guys aren’t up for pounding it inside tonight against freaking William and Mary. So let’s just start chucking instead. That game plan was kinda optional anyway.

This is where the Gary/Vasquez relationship is so vexing. It’s not all their fault – Jordan Williams, Dino Gregory, Adrian Bowie, Cliff Tucker, and Hayes were all non-factors.  But those two are the clear leaders.  They love each other — they have made that painfully, almost awkwardly clear. But Gary seems to treat Greivis like an overindulgent father whose kid runs wild through the neighborhood. Obviously, none of the players are comfortable asking Vasquez to stop going one on five. So they just watch or join in, letting bad decisions lead to more desperation to more bad decisions ad infinitum. The post-game player comments reflected that, being of the usual, Eeyoresque “I dunno what happened, we shoulda had more energy, mumble mumble mumble” variety.  Fantastic.

I’m a long way from the Fire Gary camp. But where was all that great in-game coaching?  Why do we need to be in mid-February with our backs against the wall before he becomes able to lead his team? Why do we keep having these letdowns?   Why do we seem incapable of learning from our mistakes? What the fuck is wrong with this fucking team?  SMAAAAAASSSSSSHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!

Okay, okay.  I’m calm.  But the sad fact is, this season looks like the same old tired story. They’re gonna start slow in the ACC. Florida State will be an ass-whoopin — mark that down. We’ll be left for dead. Then we’ll pull out just enough upsets to get on the bubble, with the ACC tournament deciding our final fate. We’ll probably make it and lose again in the second round. Can we just fast-forward to next season? I’ve seen this movie before.

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