Part of me feels like it’s still too early to look ahead, with all that lugubrious Korie Luciousness still sitting like a large bag of marbles somewhere in my digestive track. But a bigger part of me is just plain sick of hearing and thinking about it. The epitaphs have been written, the fallen lamented, the heroes canonized, the cold and bitter consolations consumed, the hangovers nursed. Plus, it is my understanding that blogging is a medium of immediacy. Blogs don’t gaze at navels. They bite, they chew, they spit, they rinse, they repeat.

So let’s talk about next season then. Maryland lost three players, but will gain at least five (extra spaces courtesy of Jin Soo Choi’s departure and Jerome Burney’s foot).  The Terps could actually add another one because David Pearman is on a year-to-year scholarship.  But wait, there’s more. They could gain yet another scholly if Steve Goins transfers — a move that has been rumored for over a year now. With five freshmen already, if they end up adding more players, they could go after some juco transfers, which is less risky when you’ve got a younger team without a ton of existing chemistry to interfere with coughstevefranciscough.

I’m not going to get into what might happen with the other potential slots…for now, it’s just conjecture. So I’ll talk about the players we know will take the floor next year for the Terps.

Projected starters:

Point Guard: Adrian Bowie, senior
Shooting Guard: Cliff Tucker, senior
Small Forward: Sean Mosley, junior
Power Forward: Dino Gregory, senior
Center: Jordan Williams, sophomore

Projected reserves (subject to change given scholarship situation):

Point Guard: Terrell Stoglin, freshman
Shooting Guard: Pe’Shon Howard, freshman; David Pearman, senior
Small Forward: Mychal Parker, freshman; Hauker Palsson, freshman; Ersin Levent, junior
Power Forward: James Padgett, sophomore; Ashton Pankey, freshman
Center: Steve Goins, junior

A lot of people are way down on this team given its lack of experience and, how should I put this, floor leadership. But there are some good pieces here. This can be a tournament team.

Going into the season, the main source of tension for me is the glaring, obvious fact that Adrian Bowie is not a point guard. It’s not that he’s a bad point guard. It’s that he is not a point guard. I don’t see any barking cats around here, and I also don’t see any Adrian Bowie point guards. Whenever the scientific community wants to clue us in on how to genetically fuse Bowie and Tucker into one body, that would be great. Seriously, science, any time now.

Tension could come into play here because of Gary Williams’ well-known loyalty to older players. That philosophy could be sorely tested, as true point guard Terrell Stoglin will be waiting in the wings. Stoglin just finished leading his Arizona high school team to a state championship and is the second-leading scorer in the state’s history, behind some guy named Mike Bibby. He averaged 30 points and six assists his senior year. He’s not what you’d call a physical freak, his defense is suspect, and there’s clearly a big learning curve in front of him, but if he adapts, they may have to give him a shot, assuming Bowie plays PG next season like he did in limited chances this season — that is, like a lizard trying to tap dance.  Gary Williams is a good coach, so it could change. Lizards can also learn to tap dance — I seen it with my own eyes.  But it is difficult, is what I’m saying.  It is not probable.  If Stoglin gets the nod and they start using Bowie again at SG, that will cut into playing time for either Bowie or Tucker. Neither exactly has a proven team-first reputation, especially Tucker, who has openly complained about PT in the past.  So if Gary did go with Stoglin, he would not only be going against his own tendencies, but potentially creating locker room strife. On the other hand, what if Bowie simply can’t run point?  That, really, is the question.

Speaking of young guys, after Jordan Williams’ amazing season, it seems, as Testudo Times has pointed out, that this will be his team next season. People handed the future to Sean Mosley when he came out with guns blazing, but as he cooled off later in the season J-Will became more promising as next season’s centerpiece.

Front-court depth, however, will still be an issue. James Padgett’s offseason will be important; you may recall that Gary Williams has already challenged him to gain 15 pounds of muscle.  Freshman 6′9″ PF Ashton Pankey lost most of his senior HS season with a troubling leg injury (his recovery timetable is still uncertain). So we have no idea what we’ll get from him. On the other hand, we know exactly what we’ll get from Dino Gregory. So yes. Front-court depth will be an issue.

Interestingly, our two most exciting freshmen (in my opinion anyway) will be the most buried on the depth chart. Point guard/scoring guard Pe’shon Howard is an exciting player (ridiculous passing) and could be the team’s next emotional leader.  Swingman Mychal Parker (55 on Rivals) is basically the new Landon Milbourne. But with Mosley and the BowTuck Monster in front of them, it could be tough for either to get real minutes right away.

So there you have it. In my opinion, this is a team that’s going to have to make a serious commitment to defense if it wants to compete next season. They have the athleticism to lock teams up, but won’t have a lot of scoring options and will struggle if they lose focus or discipline. I’ll pencil them in for 19 wins and a season on the bubble. We shall see.

(This post is also published on Bleacher Report.)

In some ways, the ACC basketball formula is not difficult to decipher.  You run it, you gun it, you rinse, you repeat.

The take-home message?  It’s a lot of running. A lot of gunning. That’s why depth is such a key issue. And that’s why Maryland’s underwhelming bench production is causing some gastroenterological discomfort in some territories of Terpland.

Before the Florida State game, the eight bench players — Adrian Bowie, Cliff Tucker, Dino Gregory, James Padgett, Jin Soo Choi, Steve Goins, David Pearman, and Ersin Levent –  were averaging 2.6 points on 35 percent shooting, 0.5 assists, and 1.3 rebounds in 10 minutes of playing time per player per game.  Thus, the entire bench is delivering 21 points, four assists and 11 rebounds each game — or, 26 percent of the scoring, 30 percent of the rebounds, and 23 percent of the assists. Compare this to North Carolina, whose reserves are scoring 3.3 points per player per game, or 42 percent of the team’s points. On the other end of the rankings spectrum, the eight N.C. State reserves who have attempted a shot of any kind are averaging 2.5 points per player per game, or 30 percent of the team’s points.  

It’s more than numbers, though…we need bodies to man the perimeter and/or establish any semblance of an effective press.  An unreliable bench also carries clear implications for Maryland’s starters, for whom a lack of bench production means heavy minutes…I did the math and it’s 29 mpg to be exact, tied with Duke and Wake for most in the ACC.  It also means extra performance anxiety for the starters, maybe not exactly what the doctor ordered for this fairly high-strung team and its fairly high-strung best player.  

But lately, the bench is showing signs of life. The jailbreak that was Winston-Salem State was encouraging, but it was still Winston-Salem State, a veritable open bar of stat-quaffing.  More meaningful to me was yesterday’s Florida State win.  Cliff Tucker led the reserves with eight points in 16 minutes. Dino Gregory gave his most Dino-Gregorian effort yet, with the putbacks and the rebounds and the yeoman’s defense and the hey hey hey. Padgett had some confident moves on the low block that were particularly impressive against the Ents of FSU. Of the reserves, only Adrian Bowie was held scoreless (more on him later). But generally, slowly, gradually, this bench may be starting to emerge.

That trend will probably continue to some extent due to a few self-corrections.  I included every reserve in the numbers above, because they do log minutes in cupcake games. Moving forward, though, it’s reasonable to expect that the Levents and Pearmans of the world, God bless them, will probably not see game action for the remainder of the season (with the possible exception of Longwood). Gone as well is Jin Soo Choi, as are his binary code stat lines. Freshman Padgett continues his development. And of course, Dino Gregory is back from suspension and rounding into form.

Let’s assume Dino keeps on his current pace and is a solid bench contributor the rest of the way. He’s our best overall reserve and number one glue guy, to use a phrase that just passed Tom Brady and is rapidly overtaking American Idol on my big list of things I find to be tired. That really leaves Tucker, Bowie, Padgett, and Goins as the wild cards here. Even with Choi’s departure, Goins’ involvement remains iffy at best as long as he continues to battle The Little Knee Injury That Could. Padgett is showing flashes, but that’s still all they are — flashes. Anything we get from him is gravy. But his play is promising. His minutes and numbers plummeted with Dino’s return, but he still plays hard whenever he sees the court, and always seems to unveil a new improvement or wrinkle to his game (last night, it was a nifty post pivot and sparkling two-for-two from the free throw line. Seriously…that’s sparkling.)

Which brings us back to Tucker and Bowie, or as I like to call them, The Mystery Twins. Great name, right? I was thinking about printing up some T-shirts. Apparel aside, one minute they’re MIA, the next they’re the best athlete on the team. Right now Tucker is the one rolling, but that could change any moment. His big breakout came against Winston-Salem, but began well before that with a renewed commitment to practice and teammates. Nevertheless, in the early season he managed to burrow his way into Coach Williams’ bad graces yet again, climaxing (if that’s the right word) with a DNP-CD against Indiana and a big four minutes versus Eastern Kentucky.  But over the last five games or so, his minutes and production have stabilized. But that could change at any moment, so how stable is it really? That’s life…with The Mystery Twins. Coming soon to NBC!

Adrian Bowie seems a little less mercurial than Cliff, but on the other hand he has just plain underperformed in 15 mpg this year, which is way down from his 24 average last season. Right now, Bowie is a disappointment and a soft spot in this Maryland rotation. And that’s coming from a bona fide Bowie fan. Not to wax all philosophical and crap, but he seems to have stopped growing as a player. He’s only averaging 3.4 ppg (to Tucker’s 6) and has pulled the donut hole five times, including against FSU. He slashes more than Jason Voorhies but is considerably less devastating with it, in part because he doesn’t have anything else in his game that defenders need to respect. Plus, at 6′2″, he isn’t big enough to be a scoring guard who can stop the other team’s scoring guard. He should be Eric Hayes’ backup, but isn’t. For whatever reason, he isn’t able (or willing) to run the point. Finally, he seems to disappear at strange times. Perhaps it’s just a coincidence, but still interesting that four of his five best statistical ACC games last year (Miami, Florida State, Boston College, and Duke at home) were all Terps losses.

So he’s a bit of a square peg in a round hole for this lineup. Tucker is more of a natural fit in terms of his size and his skill set. As his attitude has improved, so have his minutes and his game. It’s a self-perpetuating cycle. So with the rotation firming up and more players hitting their stride, perhaps this is the start of a larger trend. Gregory is the star of the bench, but if Tucker can remain consistent, we coax a little more out of Bowie, and Padgett gives us five decent minutes a game, we could really have something here. With the ACC schedule getting into full swing, we need every body we can get.

With forward/center Dino Gregory returning to action this Saturday against Eastern Kentucky after being suspended for some academic violation, speculation is heating up on how he might be used and how he might contribute in the Terps’ lineup.

Here’s what it basically boils down to, OK? You can only have five players on the court at one time, right. So they’re gonna need to figure out whether they want to bench somebody to make room for Dino in the starting lineup. They could bench most consistent player Landon Milbourne (negative), maddening but most talented player Vasquez (negatory), or rock solid player Eric Hayes (negarino).

So that leaves Jordan Williams. Either he’ll be benched for Dino or Dino himself will sub in.

I think I have solved this mystery. The smoking gun is a quote from Gary Williams given after the Villanova game. Let’s go to the block quotes:

“We’re supposed to get Dino Gregory back by the 12th, according to the powers that be. We look forward to that, to him playing in our next game. He’ll give us more depth, more size on the inside. He’s a very good defensive player, a good rebounder, and we need that.”

Depth. See that? Dino will give us “depth.” If he had said “he’ll give us a more consistent presence inside,” or “he gives us more experience inside,” or “he’s going to give us more scoring on the inside,” then I’d say that Jordan Williams’ starting spot was in jeopardy. But he said none of those things. So to me, it doesn’t matter if Jordan Williams is green, or forest green, or lime green, or seafoam green. He’s gonna remain the starter. As the saying goes, you can’t teach six-ten. And Jordan just had his best game as a Terp, posting 19 points and 12 boards against Nova. Not to mention that Gary said after the game that Jordan was “a man.”

So what would Dino give us off the bench? Just hustle and rebounding and hustle and defense, along with his purportedly improved offensive game. Sounds like a pretty doggone good sixth man to me. Especially when you consider that our bench, to be frank, seems to be made of balsa wood and Bubble Yum up to this point. In 11.1 average minutes per player per game, the Padgett/Choi/Tucker/Bowie/Goins smorgasboard is averaging 3.14 points, 1.92 rebounds, and a crisp 0.74 assists per game. That is not very good. And a couple of them seem to have some between-the-ears issues that anything-for-the-team Gregory could help rectify.

All in all, the bench needs some buttressing, stat. And that’s where Dino fits.

1. Vasquez led all scorers with 23, which is great.  Still, 7 points came on garbage time FTs and he only shot 4-14.  But hey, feel free to proceed with the parade as planned.
2. At halftime, Bill Raftery called Vasquez’s play ”solid,” and said he wasn’t “forcing the issue.”  Totally spot on.  In other news, it’s opposite day.
3. Landon Milbourne (8-11 for 19 pts, 7 rebs, 3 stls, 2 blks) is our best player so far.
4. Could we run more stuff for Eric Hayes?   He’s in rhythm right now, especially off the curl.
5. IU guard Jeremiah Rivers (Doc’s son and a Georgetown transfer) is a nice player.
6. In Dino Gregory’s absence, Jin Soo Choi had an opportunity.  He has not capitalized on that opportunity. 
7. Perimeter defense greatly improved after they went to the zone.
8. James Padgett had as many fouls as he had points and rebounds combined (3). 
9. As with Cincy, we missed a lot of bunnies.  That’s gotta get corrected.  It was more understandable against the imposing Bearcats.
10. Closer than the final score indicates, but still a decent road win, and a good team win.  

(Photo Credit: Darron Cummings/Associated Press, via the Washington Post)

So the Cincinnati Bearcats handled the Terps 69-57 tonight in the first real test for either team. Based on several requests (and by “several” I mean “one”), I’m providing a recap in bullet points. It’s the bloggy thing to do.

• I’m eating some crow over Lance Stephenson. Not a game MVP, and still a headcase imho, but a natural on the court. Crow isn’t bad anyway…it’s just oily. Whatever. It was free, and I’m drunk.
• My keen basketball instincts cited potential trouble when we only scored 18 points in the first half. Scoring points is one of Tim McCarver’s Keys to Victory.
• Not easy for a 6′10″ guy and a 6′8″ guy to look small, but Jordan Williams and James Padgett did tonight against The Human Volkswagens, aka Yancy Gates and Steve Toyloy.
• Lid still on the bucket for Vasquez (5-17 fg). We can’t beat good teams like that.
• Jin Soo Choi: If you get an open look, just shoot.
• James Padgett: Starting tomorrow, please take 200 free throws after every practice. Thanks so much.
• They seemed physically bigger than us at every position except point guard.
• Defense was generally good, but the press was broken regularly and we seemed hesitant to get in the way once they got a head of steam toward the basket.
• We missed a lot of bunnies.
• Cincinnati is no joke.
• Rugged play seems to give the Terps the yips.
• I bet both teams win their final game in Maui.

So, here we are. By process of elimination, the starting center for your Maryland Terrapins is James Padgett! Dude, did you know he’s from Brooklyn OMG he’s from Brooklyn that’s in New York City dude!

I always love it when I can figure something out by process of elimination. Nine out of 10 baby mamas agree: it’s just a solid way of handling your business.

But in any case, that’s where we find ourselves. Jordan Williams is too green, Steve Goins is too injured, Dino Gregory is too suspended. But you know? I don’t mind. I’ll go to war with James Padgett. At 6′7″ and 210, he’s not the biggest dude in the world, and he could stand to get stronger, but he’s still tough in there. He played nervous in the preseason, although I think he got that out of his system. We’ll see on Friday, of course.

The pleasant surprise with Padgett is that he has moves. Imagine that — a big guy who has hands! Footwork! An offensive game! The biggest part of his game, though, is dirty work. He’s Windex on the glass, and you know what? I heard we have some other shooters on the team who are not shy with the chucking. Padgett could fit perfectly in that regard. At Lincoln High School (did you know that’s in Brooklyn?!?!?!) he played Robin to Lance Stephenson’s Batman, so he’s fine with that unsung role. And hey, he got enough singing even in the unsung role to get to Maryland, so he’s gotta be good at it. He’s also very beardy, so he has that going for him.

What? There can't be TWO James Padgetts.

I think he’s eventually gonna take a more complementary role to Gregory, maybe Goins, and, eventually, Williams, but for now he seems to be the man. I’m thinking at least 20 a game at the outset, probably average a 5 and 7 or something like that. Nice.

I’m going to do something crazy and put the “bottom line” summary at the top. I know it’s crazy someone bring me my meds omg.

Anyway, here goes: Jordan Williams could end up being the best out of Maryland’s four current big men, but as of now, he’s probably the worst. However, he is also their second-least injured and/or ineligible post man, so he’ll get plenty of run. That pretty much sums it up.

Assuming Dino Gregory does in fact get an extended suspension, Williams is probably gonna be one of the first, if not the first, guy off the bench. (Either him or Bowie is my guess.)

The 6′10″, 260 pound J-Will — can I call you J-Will? — is well-known to Terp fans. He’s a freshman from Torrington, Connecticut. Our first legit center prospect since, what, Mike Mardesich? Ryan Randle? He captured a lot of peoples’ attention — including mine — in a grainy YouTube video, in which the opposing crowd chanted “What’s a Terp?”, to which Williams responded by sprinkling their court with shards of backboard glass. Please allow me to post that video for the eleventy hundreth time. Nice.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lh_oIvJyGNY]

So the guy is strong. The guy is tall. The guy is tough in the paint. The guy can dunk, and, unlike some of our other recent big men, he seems to have no reservations about doing so. What’s the downside? As of now, the downside is that he’s mainly upside. He’s got a high ceiling, but he doesn’t seem especially close to it. There are concerns about his slowness, and that he’s not shredded like Mr. Olympia, but I think that will resolve himself as the season progresses and he plays his way into college-level shape. Ditto for his somewhat limited offensive arsenal. (Padgett is probably ahead of him in all these areas, hence the reason why he’ll probably start over J-Will.) Here’s an interesting and promising nugget on his offense, though: he is silky smooth from the charity stripe. He went 5-6 against IUP, so that bodes well for his future development as well as this season, in which I’m guessing he’s gonna get hacked a lot.

Bottom line: probably 15-17 minutes a game for Williams out of the box. As previously mentioned, early part of the schedule, if Dino is suspended, could be good seasoning time for Jordan. I’m high on this guy. Once he gets into the swing of things, I think he’s gonna be a player for us, and I see that happening sooner rather than later.

(Photo credit: Baltimore Sun)

Of all the reserves we’ve highlighted so far, Steve Goins is easily the most well-known. And with good reason. When you’re 6′10″, there’s no hiding. In his freshman season last year, Goins saw action in four games, averaging three minutes of PT per game. During that time, he pulled down four rebounds and scored two points (*coughuhthatstotalcoughcough*). So that’s good! Great job, Steve.

Here’s the downside with Goins. In a team last year that played Big Dave Neal at center, it’s a bit of a head scratcher as to why Goins couldn’t seize the moment. Hey, I love Big Dave Neal as much as the next guy, but we all know his physical capabilities were limited. He was listed as 6′7″, but that measurement must have been taken either right after Big Dave woke up, or while someone was still actively dreaming. Following last season, Goins announced he was going to transfer, only to change his mind at the last minute.

Now, here’s the upside. After returning to Maryland, Goins apparently promised to raise his game. With the transfer of Braxbum Dupree and Jerome Burney’s unfortunate career-ending injury, the path to PT could be a lot clearer for Goins. He had surgery over the offseason and is working his way back into shape on the court. He had a tweak of the knee during a scrimmage a few days ago but it doesn’t seem terribly serious, and he got eight points and seven boards during the game, which is more than what Jordan Williams got.

(UPDATE: So I guess the injury did turn out to be fairly serious. Consider the rest of this post contingent upon Goins’ recovery. Hey, thank you so much.)

Now obviously, Williams, Dino Gregory (tentatively scheduled to start at center, we’ll see if that holds up), and James Padgett are expected to get the bulk of the work in the low post this season, and rightfully so, but Goins could be valuable depth. Six-ten doesn’t grow on trees after all.

Overall, the book on Goins is the same as it was when he first came to Maryland: he’s a late bloomer. He’s a project. He’s raw. He didn’t start playing until his freshman year of high school and wasn’t really recruited until his junior year — a pretty glaring fact considering that scouts these days are following large women into the delivery room. In terms of his game, it’s the same story that other Maryland big guys have had (see Braxbum, Mardesich, Garrison, etc.) — i.e., he’s got a nice touch for a big man but isn’t especially tough or athletic. But his supporters insist he can be a player, and he seems like a nice enough guy. Any fan of the Fresh Prince of Bel-Air is good in my book. Now if he can just take the smoothness and mix in a little ruggedness, that’ll be two good tastes that go great together.

(Photo credit: UMTerps.com)

As the football team gets increasingly left for dead, more and more Terp fans are turning to basketball to soothe their wounded pride.  And after Maryland Madness last weekend, the hoops season is officially underway. The men’s team isn’t getting a ton of respect in the preseason polls, but that’s OK. We’re a better team when we’re undervalued. The women’s team is full of freshmen but are expected to be relatively solid.

Based on the limited knowledge you get from Maryland Madness, both teams looked fine. I watched the coverage on TV, and here are some photographic highlights.
 

Freshman crop of women’s talent was introduced.
 
 Senior Emery Wallace, who is out for the season with injury, did a lengthy sideline interview anyway.  For some reason.   Good evening, Emery. 

Sorry, Jerome.  Nice of the team to give him a spot on the strength and conditioning staff.  He’s a kinesiology major, so this would be a nice feather in his professional cap. 

And now……the head coach of YOUR Maryland Terrapins….oh oh oh OH oh…

  
He got all teary during his speech…he really seems to expect big things this year.

Surprise! Vasquez took the mike. “You’ve all gotta support us no matter what, OK” he said. No, Vasquez. I will agree to no such thing.

Right, basketball. So on the heels of the college b-ball schedule release (check out Maryland’s here — note Villanova, Duke twice, and a possible showdown with Lance Stephenson’s Bearcats on Nov. 24) ESPN puts out a nice little ACC primer/preview today. I was starting to get a little agitated as I read through — no mention of the Terps anywhere! Sean Mosely was listed as the ninth out of 10 “key players” in the conference, and when we get down to the “10 Freshmen We Can’t Wait To See” section, nary a Jordan or James mention to be found! That’s bullcrap, dude. You know what freshman I can’t wait to see, ESPN? Your mama. Your big, stupid, sweatstained, bus-pass-having mama.

But then, what do I see on the righthand side but Jay Bilas’ rankings. And guess who he’s got number three? Let’s take a read:

The Terps had a very good season, but will be better with some bulk and talent inside. Greivis Vasquez is one of the best guards in the country, but his emotional play seems to get more press than his skills. Vasquez is a complete player whom I believe is underrated. Add James Padgett and Jordan Williams to returnees Dino Gregory and Jerome Burney, and Maryland is not playing shorthanded in the paint this year. And no team will outwork this bunch. The Terps should be back to Garyland’s expected standards this season.

Not bad, Jay. You know, for a Dookie. Color me placated.